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News: How accurate is the groundhog at predicting weather?

Punxsutawney Phil probably spends all night sweating over charts and data, poor thing. Enjoy!

Later -

Tater Scot

How accurate is the groundhog at predicting weather?
By Doyle Rice

USA TODAY

With cloudy skies and freezing rain in the forecast for western Pennsylvania on Wednesday morning, it's unlikely that famed groundhog Punxsutawney Phil will see his shadow when he pops out of his burrow.

Will that mean that this brutal winter of 2010-11 is over? After all, so the legend goes, if the furry rodent doesn't see his shadow, that means an early spring.

Um, not so.

Based on an analysis of recent weather data, "there is no predictive skill for the groundhog during the most recent years of the analysis," according to the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

The center found that since 1988, the groundhog was "right" 10 times and "wrong" 13 times. In other words, only 10 times did the national average temperature for the remainder of February match what would be expected based on what the groundhog had predicted.

Since 1887, the groundhog has seen his shadow 99 times, and not seen it 15 times to predict an early spring. (There was no record nine times in the late 19th century.)

According to folklore, if it's cloudy when the groundhog emerges from its burrow on Feb. 2, it will leave the burrow, signifying that winter will soon end. If however, it's a sunny day, the groundhog will supposedly "see its shadow" and retreat back into its burrow, and winter will continue for six more weeks.

Groundhog Day has its origins in an ancient celebration of Candlemas, a point midway between the winter solstice and the pring equinox, according to the climate center. Superstition has it that fair weather was seen as a prediction of a stormy and cold second half to winter, as noted in this Old English saying:

"If Candlemas be fair and bright,

Winter has another flight.

If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,

Winter will not come again."

Posted from http://www.usatoday.com/weather/forecast/2011-01-31-groundhog_N.htm?csp=34news&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+usatoday-NewsTopStories+(News+-+Top+Stories)

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